“Don’t wait until you have enough facts to be 100 percent sure, because by then it is almost always too late. Procrastination in the name of reducing risk actually increases risk.” – Colin Powell.
Colin Powell had an important rule he followed to make decisions.
Being a four-star general in the United States Army, he was responsible for a lot of heavy decisions. Making the wrong call would cost people’s lives. He came up with the 40-70 rule to help him make decisions. When he was under 40% sure of an outcome, it was too reckless to go for. When he was over 70% sure, his window to act was likely too late. When he was between 40 and 70% sure, that’s when he had to decide, and he went with his gut.
I use the 85% rule.
When I’m 85% sure about something, I act like I’m 100%. I don’t just act like it, I am it. I’m 100% sure in my advice. I prefer 85% because we’re not in an ever-changing battlefield against ever-changing enemies like Powell was. The pain you went through is mostly still the same for people today as it was back then for you. The Recipe for Success that you came up with works because what was relevant for you then is still relevant now. Sure, the technology might change, but the principals and the methods are the same. All you need to do is have the pattern recognition to know where people are at in the process. The more people you see and help, the faster you’ll figure out the pattern. Therefore, you can afford to jump to a higher percentage than Powell could. And when you’re 85% certain you need to be 100%. Here’s why: The people you’re helping have doubts, just like you used to. They aren’t sure there even is a solution, let alone one that you can help them with. If they sense doubt in you, then they’ll hold on to that doubt. Even though you will only be at the worst case 15% in doubt, that’s what they’ll hear because that’s what they want to hear, and so they won’t take action.
You will never be 100% certain.
The only way to know for sure is looking backwards. It means you tried and you either got a result or you didn’t, but you can’t predict with 100% certainty going forward, ever. But you need to be certain for both of you. If you’re trying to help someone, they’re listening to you because they believe in how certain you are. Your certainty gives them hope. People often have a hard time speaking in black and white terms but if you tone down your message, you tone down your impact. Pick opinions you are at least 85% certain of and give me the confidence that if I follow your advice, I’ll get results.
From Sept 25-27 I’m going to show 15 people how they can get that important message out. How you can turn your ideas and thoughts into impact and a business that makes you money. If you want to claim one of the last 5 spots, sign up today at: https://www.evancarmichael.com
I’ll see you in Toronto. Now is your time 🙂
Much love,
Evan.
#Believe
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